My initial view of the coming 2014-15 winter season!

According to the experts,  we may be in for an El Ninõ style winter here in the US! That would mean warmer than normal temps to the north and wetter than normal stuff to the south. I'll go out on a limb and initially forecast a much colder than normal regime for just about everyone. I base this prediction of the lower than normal solar max we've been experiencing as well as the fact that the recent trend for the sun, over the past few years has been fewer and fewer sunspots! In past ages, the lack of sunspots has translated into cooler global temps!

Last fall, I called the Winter of 2013-14 pretty well: "Taking just those factors into consideration, (I've left out the Milanovitch Cycles for this discussion), I've come to feeling that this winter will be a little on the cold side, but still well within the historical averages. That said, (the fly in the ointment being CO2 and the anthropogenic climate forcing it causes), we may see some really weird winter storms this time around. Time will tell..." Click here for that forecast.

More to come....

Feel free to visit my Taney County Missouri weather site...

Was the July 2014 weather in the Midwest a bit unusual!

Not a single sunspot!

If you feel that this July has been a big odd, you'd be right. The month has been over three degrees cooler than normal, in addition t being on the dry side with just .41 inches of rain having fallen in my location near Forsyth Missouri in SW MO. Normally, this area would enjoy close to three and a half inches! (That's not to say that we won't catch up over the next two weeks that remain in the month)!

The sun has likewise been acting a little bit strange with July 17 being the first sun-spotless day in almost three years (the last time this happened was on August 14, 2011)! Sunspots have actually been harder to come by even though we are in the midst of the eleven year solar max!

So, what's this mean. Probably nothing. Although there are some, like myself, who feel that there is a trend here that when combined with lower than normal sunspots could portend a hard and colder than normal winter for the 2014-15 season!

Is the drought over? Will Bull Shoals flood?

Is the local area drought ending? Will River Run Park flood again? Two very good questions. As my readers may know, much of the south central and western states have been locked in a severe drought over the past couple of years. And, while Taney County in Missouri, where I reside, is nowhere near as bad as some parts of Texas and Oklahoma, concern is still evident by many.

However, rainfall over the past month of May and now early on in June, has been encouraging. We seem (and I use that word sparingly) to be transitioning into a wetter regime. Let's take a look at some recent rainfall figures for Forsyth and West Plains Missouri. See spreadsheet at right. The June figure was as of June the 4th. On the morning of the 5th, we received 1.01 inches here in Forsyth (no data yet for West Plains). This would bring our yearly total to 14.92 inches which would still put us 8.74 inches behind the average with the better part of a month yet to go to make up the difference! This graph which shows rainfall amounts versus the average through June clearly illustrates that the Forsyth are is on a

positive run! Even though we were lagging behind January through April, we jumped forward in May and even surpassed the average historical amounts to a good degree. Now, a we enter into the early stages of June, the forecast is for unsettled weather going into the second week! That a very good thing if it pans out.

Finally, a quick peak at Bull Shoals river levels as compared to 2011 when the entire River Run and Shadowrock Parks area were flooded all summer, you can see that while the levels are elevated, they would still have a ways to go to reach those levels!

 Having made those statements, I always feel it's better to have a little more water than not enough. If the parks flood, then they flood as after all, they are designated flood plains. The next thirty days will more than likely tell the tale as to how this summer is going to proceed!

Track the weather in Taney County Missouri in real time at www.taneyservices.com!

Disclaimer: Every effort is made by the author to insure the figure supplied in this post are accurate.  If and error was made, please contact him at Forsythkid@Gmail.com!

A run of warm and wet weather!

This graph of our highs and lows in 2014 as compared to last year tell a most interesting story. Contrary to climate change extremists or CCE's, we're pretty much normal for the month of May and now, even the drought we have been experiencing is moderating somewhat. Rainfall as of the 27^th was at 5.24 inches versus an average of 4.84 (West Plains data), and we still have four days to go with rain chances looking pretty good each day! Currently, the Forsyth Missouri area stands about seven inches behind for the year, but if present patterns persist into June, that deficit could be erased rather quickly!

May has been pretty much a real lamb...so far!

After hearing so many stories from the Liberals among us about how the climate is going berserk, it has been interesting to witness a relatively calm weather month, at least so far! Other than the tornadic outbreak that devastated parts of the South on the 8^th, it's been rather quiet. Temperatures (as of the 20^th) are running right at normal for my area with rainfall at about 2.96 inches or 61%.

Rain is really a good thing Calvin!

As a very young child, I wore a yellow slicker similar to Calvin's and can remember vividly standing in the rain waiting for a bus that always seemed to be late. Back then, I had to exit a warm bed on more occassions than I'd like to remember. Today, that isn't the case and on a rainy, overcast and cool day like today, it's a pleasure to stay under the covers!!

First week in May very dry! But, then....

Temps for Forsyth Missouri

It's not unusual for the month of May to be a little crazy weather-wise! The temperatures were colder than normal the first three days of the month before warming to higher than normal. They should moderate, however, as unsettled weather will be the norm over the next few days...
While no rain has fallen in the first seven days, that should come to an end by the 8^th. Everyone is looking for a copious or torrential event if things pan out the way the weather service thinks they might!