Is a rough winter in store for the Midwest in 2012-13?

Hold onto your hats everyone! Things just may be cranking up for one hell of a rough winter! How can I possibly know that when it's only October? Read on...

Mid October is now showing two clear trends (at least to me); copious precipitation across parts of the Midwest along with cooler than normal temperatures. Both these events lend support to global circulative observations that point to a strengthening ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation which had been neutral), and an AO (Arctic Oscillation) index that looks to be headed negative* big time. (Two important influences that could produce a clashing of very cold northern arctic air with moisture laden gulf winds right over the middle of the country as we head into December and January). Down here in southwestern Missouri, that translates as ice! (See earlier post on the Long Range Forecast).

Things to look for......

Early and increasingly frequent incursions of cold fronts as we get into November which clash with warmer than normal air coming up from the gulf states. In other words, look for some pretty dicey storms over states like Oklahoma, Kansas ans Missouri. These 'storms' will carry right on into December and January where some truly strange stuff may ensue.

How good is this prediction of mine, really?

Not very, as I have absolutely no credentials in the area of climate prediction or meteorology for that matter. Still, it will be interesting to see how things pan out. I'm either an idiot savant or just a plain idiot.

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*Positive and negative phases of the Arctic Oscillation:

"The degree to which Arctic air penetrates into middle latitudes is related to the AO index, which is defined by surface atmospheric pressure patterns. When the AO index is positive, surface pressure is low in the polar region. This helps the middle latitude jet stream to blow strongly and consistently from west to east, thus keeping cold Arctic air locked in the polar region. When the AO index is negative, there tends to be high pressure in the polar region, weaker zonal winds, and greater movement of frigid polar air into middle latitudes." [A quote by NASA climatologist Dr. James Hansen].

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Other factors that may come into play:

ENSO             Currently neutral (Oct) but heading towards positive state.

AO                  Headed towards negative – more Arctic incursions into Midwest

Solar               Solar insolation is currently declining, may be entering a Maunder Minimum.

Pollution         At record levels across Asia. (This has a cooling effect).

Volcanoes       Sixty five are currently erupting worldwide. (Normal).

Greenland       Melting at many times the normal rate. Could shut down deep hyaline conveyer belt.

Disclaimer: All content provided on this blog is for informational purposes only. The owner of this blog makes no representations as to the accuracy or completeness of any information on this site or found by following any link on this site. The owner will not be liable for any errors or omissions in this information nor for the availability of this information. The owner will not be liable for any losses, injuries, or damages from the display or use of this information.

I want this last August back!

After suffering a brutal (and I mean God awful brutal July), August came prancing into my life with life giving of rain and a change from hellish heat to blessed coolness. After many weeks stuck inside my home watching the electric meter buzz like an angry insect, I was able to shut off the AC, open my windows and re-emerge from the prison that was my home. All of a sudden, just as if some deity flipped a switch; off were the hundred plus degree days and on was the kind of weather that everyone loves to waddle about in! For once I was outside and not sweltering! For once I was able to go ride a bike and not end up drenched in sweat! Wow…good stuff that.

As a fitting cap to the month, an old hurricane by the name of Isaac motored through the area and gave us a whole day of light drizzle and while it didn’t amount to much in the way of precipitation (0.86), it was a good way to exit the month with over 5 inches of rain all told.

Now, we have all bid a fond adieu to that wonderful month and turn warily to face the uncertainty that is September and beyond. My thoughts are a jumble. ‘Will the good times continue? Will future rains fall and drench the soil under my feet?’ I ask these questions of myself.

Isaac poised to do its thing!

OK, so it looks like we are going to take a hit somewhere around New Orleans with what may turn out to be a Category 2 hurricane! While that would be a very sad thing, there is still one positive. Old Isaac will be bringing a boat-load of water with him after he moves ashore later this week! This will be manna from heaven for a ton of farmers, and personally, I hope the track moves a bit more to the west and then motors on through east Texas and southwest Missouri (see graphic). While not a drought buster, a foot or so of rain could turn out to be just the game changer we’ve been looking for!

Long range forecast for the winter of 2012-13!

The long range forecasts for the coming winter of 2012-13 are now beginning to trickle in with some climatologists forecasting a 'wild mix' all across the continental United States. As the map from AccuWeather above shows, the mixed bag of ice and snow over the Midwest could prove a challenge for many of us residing in southwest Missouri.

One of the major climate players that will dictate what type of winter we will experience will be the continued development (or not) of  El Nina, or warming waters off the west coast of South America. Right now (August 2012) the predictions are running about 70% in favor of a shift from neutral to a more enhanced ENSO (El Nina Southern Oscillation). That factor in conjunction with future trends for the Arctic Oscillation (AO), increased volcanism (increased atmospheric ash) and or reduce solar output could radically affect the coming cold season for many either in a positive or negative manner.

Also, see my latest update written in October. 

More to come as we get closer to December…

Disclaimer: All content provided on this blog is for informational purposes only. The owner of this blog makes no representations as to the accuracy or completeness of any information on this site or found by following any link on this site. The owner will not be liable for any errors or omissions in this information nor for the availability of this information. The owner will not be liable for any losses, injuries, or damages from the display or use of this information.

August Nirvana!

My few friends have asked me what the heck is going on with the weather as of late? What had been a brutal onslaught of dry heat in July transitioned abruptly into a much wetter and cooler month that has now seen days that were actually BELOW NORMAL! Can you believe it?

As of the morning of August the 13th, and thanks to an early morning spot shower, My location has now almost reached and surpassed the average monthly rainfall (3.03” versus an average of 3.15”). The vegetation (and somewhat sadly my lawn) has responded very well to the change by putting out new growth. The trees have stopped dropping their leaves and my little garden plants are growing once again.

The trend to take us into the middle of the month looks to be more of the same with temperatures averaging somewhere in the mid seventies and another good shot at rain long about August the 16th.

Mini forecast for balance of August 2012!

Just as if someone flipped a switch sometime around the first of August, climate conditions here in southwest Missouri have changed dramatically! What was a hot and dry regime turned rather abruptly to a wetter and cooler climate beginning around the third of the month. Credit for the change can be partly attributable to the movement of the dome of high pressure off to the southwest over the past couple of weeks! This movement has allowed the jet stream to dig further south and as it did so, it brought cooler temperatures that interacted with all the moisture still lingering in the area.

As of August the 11^th, my location had received 2.88 inches of rain against a ‘normal’ average of 3.15 inches (West Plains data). In addition, the high temperatures went from the low one hundreds right on down to the eighties. This change (especially the increase in rainfall) was not felt uniformly across the region, sad to say. However, in my area located close to Forsyth Missouri, the additional moisture coupled with the moderation of heat has had a good effect on garden crops that had been withering.  The question in my mind, at this time, is will this trend continue?

There are some indications that, yes, this change may be more the norm for the balance of the month and here’s why; 1) every day we are not getting less and less insolation from the sun as it drifts lower in the southern sky, 2) INSO readings are now trending away from a neutral profile to a more active El Niño pattern that should see a return to wetter conditions across much of the southwest and 3) even though were are now approaching a solar max in 2013, the intensity has been pretty wimpy and some scientists think that could be the trend for some time to come. All these factors bode well for a rather pleasant (and hopefully wet) fall.

Finally! Some relief in early August!

Overnight, on August the 5^th, a cold front sweep through the area bringing with it a line of showers that swept across the area in a west to east fashion. This ‘training’ movement brought waves of rain showers that measured 1.84 inches when all was said and done. That was the case in Forsyth Missouri where I live. Other areas from southeastern Kansas across much of southern Missouri also got rainfall that helped, a little bit, to break the drought stranglehold we’ve all been living under.

Even more interestingly, the Weather Service is seeing changes in the overall jet stream patterns that may allow for continued relief as we progress into the month. Most importantly, they are forecasting a continued movement of the high pressure dome to the west along with reinforcing cold frontal invasions from the north over the next week or so. This should bring with it more normal temperatures and the chance for more rain from time to time!