Storms batter SW Missouri on last day of April!

Forsyth MO. - And just like that two popular area parks near Forsyth were closed. Shadowrock and River Run Parks both look like they will visiting Davy Jones locker, yet again, as climate change begins to make itself felt everywhere!

Will River Run flood out - Part II?

May 2017 Powersite Dam

I paraphrased a National Weather Service forecast of potential doom that was published on April the 26, 2019 to read as follows:

A weather pattern change continues into early next week, setting the stage for a potentially very active week. Medium range computer models continue to advertise increasing low level moisture, southwest flow aloft and a meandering surface boundary near the Taney County area. This will likely result in periods of heavy rain along with the potential for several bouts of severe weather. However, details are still sketchy this far out, and certainly later forecasts need to be monitored as we head through the weekend.

With all three Tri-Lake reservoirs currently at, or above full pool levels, any episodes of heavy rainfall could result in the rapid flooding of parts of Lake Taneycomo (on a temporary basis) and all of Bull Shoals in the long term. Just how the scenario of storms will play out, the exact amounts and locations will greatly affect how severe flooding problems could become. 

It was my belief that the weather should begin to get interesting on or about Wednesday, May 1st. At right is a graphic showing water levels for all three reservoirs. I was guessing that part of the problem was with a restricted rate of flow at the Bull Shoals dam on the Arkansas border. This likely due to the Mississippi River setting record levels! And, since that problem isn't going to go away very soon, I felt that the survival of my two favorite parks; Shadowrock and River Run, would be entirely dependent on how much rain actually fell in the first week of May.

701.48 04-26-2019   12:45 CDT

So, only time will tell... At right Powersite Dam was releasing water on April 26, 2019.

Update: April 27 - The baroclinic zone then meanders near the area from Monday though Thursday as upper flow becomes more southwesterly. As has been previously mentioned, this set up is conducive to periodic showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain potential along with the potential for some strong to severe storms. The most impactful period looks to be Monday night through Tuesday night as a shortwave lifts out of the desert southwest and traverses the area. A corridor of precipitable water values of 1.50" to 1.75" feeding into the boundary with likely result in heavy rainfall.

At right is an animation of flood and high flow conditions for national rivers and streams. Note the condition of the mid parts of the Mississippi river system. That heavy load of flood waters will be making its way down to rivers that help drain the Tri-Lakes as we progress into early May. In my opinion, this could spell trouble for parts of southwest Missouri.

Update: Right on schedule, a massive system arrived on the last day of April to unload 2 to 3 inches of rain all across the region with more to come as we entered bravely into May. That will pretty much seal the fate of the two parks to a watery grave for 2019. Pics to come!

Heavy rains set for Saturday, April 13!

Forsyth MO. - An active weather pattern looked posed to invade the Midwest with heavy rainfall set to impact much of southern Missouri and all of Arkansas!

Precipatible water amounts of 1 to 2 inches looked to fall on the watershed that surrounds the Tri-Lake set of reservoirs which are comprised of Beaver, Table Rock and Bull Shoals lakes. Fortunately, all three bodies of waters were at or below normal full pool levels. And before anyone asks is this had been a cold or warm start to spring, I can say that we are about 5.5 degrees abov ethe 30 year average! www.taneyweather.com

Mid March 2019 forecast temps!

Forsyth Mo. - Mid March was to be everything cool, everything slightly wet and nothing to enjoy outdoors! Unless you're a duck, perhaps!

Update: Last 11 days of March looking good!

River Run closed in March 2019!

Forsyth MO. - One of two popular parks near the town of Forsyth Mo. which is situated in southwest corner of the state was closed recently and just why remained a mystery to me.

For whatever reason, the Army Corps of Engineers located in the Little Rock District of Arkansas and who can be reached by calling (870) 445-7166, had decided to close the park to public access as I discovered on the morning of Friday, March 8, 2019. The Park itself was mostly high and dry as water levels at Bull Shoals were dropping fairly rapidly. The graphic at right depicts the water levels as of March 8, 2019. The level at 9AM that day was measured at 665.66 feet or about 6.66 feet above normal levels.

So, the question becomes... Just what does the Corps know that the rest of us don't. Perhaps some who read this can give them a call to find out!

Bull Shoals levels holding in there!

Forsyth Mo. - Thanks to a somewhat lackluster start to March 2019 in the rainfall department, the Bull Shoals Lake levels had dropped back down, just a bit, with the trend likely to continue until around March 8 and 9 when storms were forecast to impact the region. That said Beaver Lake was 1.63 feet above full pool and thus posed a potential problem if we were to be inundated with heavy rains at any point in the month! Please note that the level at which the Corps of Engineers would actually close River Run is mere conjecture on my part.


Update: March 5 - Powersite dam was running strong!And, the Corps must have also been releasing at the dam by the border as River Run Park looked to be in fairly good shape with the water level at 667.47 feet.

Update : March 6 - The lake levels continued to drop, so that was good news. The only fly in the ointment was the unsettled weather pattern that was shaping up towards the start of the second week of March! This from the NWS: "Amplified upper-level flow returns for Tuesday and Wednesday as the models hint at another robust shortwave trough digging across the Dessert Southwest, with its axis taking on a negative tilt as it aims toward the central and southern Plains, as well as the Missouri Ozarks."

Update: March 8 - Bull Shoals water levels now below flood stage for River Run. And, it looked like no real heavy rains were in the immediate future!This from the NWS: At this time instability appears to be more limited across the area with the better thunderstorm potential looking to remain southwest of the area at this time.

Update: March 9 - I recorded a .81 inch rainfall that looked like it covered pretty much the entire Tri-Lake region. That much rain could pose a problem for rising lake levels.

Update: March 10 - After the region got a good dose of rainfall, Bull Shoals was still trending slightly downwards. Good news! However, as the current NWS forecast for the coming mid work week was: ' A cold front will sweep across the area Wednesday into Wednesday night. Lift will increase across the area resulting in widespread showers to develop across the area Wednesday and Wednesday evening. Three quarters to one and one quarter inches of rainfall is expected with this system. A few embedded thunderstorms will also be possible, but overall instability appears to be more lacking and not expecting any severe storms at this time. Northwest flow then sets up across the region late in the week and will result in below normal temperatures into next weekend.' So, another .75 to 1.25 inches of rainfall would keep things interesting. Stay tuned.
www.taneyweather.com

March 2 2019 Snow event!

Taney County Mo. - It was a Saturday, March 2nd, 2019 and the NWS was calling for snow to fall across much of southwest Missouri. As in all such cases, a lot of guesswork was out there concerning precipitation forms (wet versus frozen), types (rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow) and overall amounts. The current thinking for Taney County Missouri was for about two inches of snow with the start late in the day as any rain or drizzle that existed would change over snow.

As per the 5:38 AM dialog, the NWS stated;  'The upper level trough (area of low pressure) will help deepen a surface low over west Texas later today before moving across the lower Mississippi Valley late tonight and Sunday. Moisture will be pulled up and over the system and interact with the cold air mass overspreading much of the central U.S.' This setup did portend that snow would fall, with exactly how much and of what forms still to be determined. (Unfortunately, that left evening commuters pretty much clueless). Following are 'updates' that I planned to make beginning later in the afternoon. These would be intended for the immediate area around Forsyth and would likely not be representative of the rest of Taney County! My updates will look something like this:

 

9:46 AM - Sky was overcast with no forms of precipitation. The apparent snow in the radar at right is 'virga' - precip that is not making it to the ground.

www.taneyweather.com

See? Easy peasey. I also intended to insert comments at any times where I saw or heard about any significant events happening. So, stay turned. The weather 'action' should begin much later today and overnight. This could be a pretty late event, but I planned to be vigilant.

12:30 PM - The outdoor temps had shown a trend downwards (.17° per hour). Winds were also veering towards the north. Nothing really that major. And, as it turned out everything more or less stabilized after the 1PM hour.

1:40 PM - At this hour, the freezing line was still off to the northwest. I was making a guess that it would be after 6PM before it made its way into the Taney County area. Also, I noted the light and variable nature of the winds.

5:00 PM - Latest forecast from the Weather Service is zeroing in on a 3AM to 9AM period when snow might impact area traffic in and around Taney County.I'll set my alarm clock for an early start Sunday!

10:30 PM - The radar was showing echos from the west. Snow, virga or what? Going to sleep and will try and awake at about 3AM. Late night folks can track the event at www.taneyweather.com!

5:10 AM - Pretty much a blown forecast, that is, if we don't get some snow off the back side of the system which was making fast tracks off to the east. I did note a bit of ice on an exposed railing. There were also some indications of a band of snow approaching from the west.


5:45 AM - If that snow that is indicated on the left and which is approaching fairly quickly is the real thing, I'm thinking it will hit just in time for the morning rush for church!

6:20 AM - Observed snow falling. I did not feel that the event was going to last very long, however.

In the graphic, at left, you can see that the snow band was fairly thin. For a live link to the 76 Strip in Branson click here.

So, that pretty much is a wrap for this winter season as we will be warming up by mid week. The next stormy weather was shaping up to hit late in the work week and should be i n the form of some rain and thunder.