First half of Nov 2018 five degrees below normal!

Forsyth MO. - I watched with a little bit of concern, the manner in which the temperatures sort of fell off the cliff over the first fifteen days in November! After experiencing a few past years that saw very warm temps, as high as seven degrees ABOVE the normal average, I had concluded that the Global Warming bull shit might have something going for it. But, no! the mercury began the month in fine fashion and then dropped like a brick! (I even saw a few days that were more reminiscent of late December)!

That all said, we seemed to be heading back to near normal conditions for the second half of the month!

Average temperatures drop in first half of November 2018!

After experience a very typical October, here in southwest Missouri, the temperatures had taken a definite downwards curve in the first half of November 2018! www.taneyweather.com

November 2018. Some initial thoughts!

After a pretty typical October month had come and gone, November entered in rainy and cold fashion with temps barely hitting the 50 degree mark for a high. Thus, as we enter into mid fall, I was left wondering how the coming winter (starting on Fri, Dec 21) was going to go...

Mid October 2018 average temperature trend continues!

When it comes to the winter weather forecast for the 2018-2019 season, the NOAA has reported that there is a 70% chance that we will have an El Niño winter season, meaning early predictions call for a warmer than average winter across the United States. Well, that the official forecast at this point in time!

Mid October averages to steer more towards normal!

Using nothing less than state of the art graphics, I put together a mid October sort of forecast for what I think will be the average temps across southwest Missouri. For this model, I colored in zones of hot, nice, cool, cold and frigid average temps. (I feel that the average temperature for any given day gives one the feel of that day). And, as can be seen, we are in for a more 'normal' weather period than what we experienced in 2017, at least for the mid portion of the month. As the the normal average works out to be 57 degrees (Hi 70 Lo 44), we will  likely be running just a bit below that figure, through about the 22nd of the month.

Why I'm all in for Global Warming!

Over the past many years, I've maintained a small weather reporting station (Davis Weather Monitor II), that despite its age, has been recording fairly accurately. Below, for instance, is a graph of the last five August's low temperature averages (note that 2015 was missing).

Many climatologists seem to agree that the best test of Global Warming would be to watch and see how well the atmosphere cools each day. Therefore, they watch the average lows to get a feel for what's going on over time. The graph above shows an average increase of 3 degrees for that '6' year span. A trend that I've seen played out again and again for every month and over many years.

So, does that indicate that things are getting warmer for Mother Earth? You betcha. As far as I'm concerned the results are in and we all will be seeing the effects of warming weather here where I live in southwest Missouri!

Here's the deal. Rather than worry about it, I actually am looking forward to a January where we will be able to have palm trees in my neighborhood! Yes, I like the increased heat! Now, does that make me some kind of nut? Perhaps, but as I have only a relatively short span of time left on earth - well that's all I really care about. You see, one second after I'm dead, I won't give a damn, will I? And anyway according to the article Sperm Zero, we're all going to be extinct by about 2046...

After a very hot summer 2018, what about the coming winter?

SW MO - The summer of 2018 was on the wane on the last day of August, and in true fashion, it was warm at 90 degrees! Thus, in only about twenty more days, we will all bid adieu to what was one of the hottest summers on record for the Midwest. Fall will arrive promptly on Saturday, September the 22^nd and I'd like to think that many of us just might sigh with some relief! Hot and humid days spent indoors next to the AC will soon be replaced by much more livable, shorter and cooler days! A good time will be had by all! And, then, winter will inevitably arrive on the 21^st of December.... Arrg!

So, what can we expect on the days following the shortest day of the year? Well, if you believe in the Farmer's Almanac, the signals were a bit mixed this time around. Here's a quote from Farmers' Almanac Editor and Philom Peter Geiger. "Contrary to some stories floating around on the internet, our time-tested, long-range formula is pointing towards a very long, cold, and snow-filled winter.” He then went on to state, "We stand by our forecast and formula, which accurately predicted most of the winter storms last year as well as this summer's steamy, hot conditions." Hmmm.

But what about global warming and all that? That is a good question. However, whenever you have a planet with seven and a half billion souls, many of who live by burning wood and coal and when you have an extremely complex climate with melting poles adding tons of fresh water to salty oceans....

The bottom line is that we will all just have to wait and see what will be.....