Just one more month to go!

The first of February 2015 is just a few days away, and to me, that marks the beginning of the end for winter! The sun will noticeably rise higher and higher about the horizon in the northern hemisphere and as it does, more and more energy in the form of solar insolence will reach the chilled earth.

Where I reside in southwest Missouri, the average temperature for February (as measured at the National Weather Service station in West Plains, MO) comes in at 38°F - with the average high is 48°F and the average low is 26°F. I use this location for temperatures and rainfall as Forsyth lies on about the same latitude and therefore shares much of the same climate. Rainfall will, hopefully be about 3 inches, although we certainly could use more! For anyone with an interest I have live climatic data available at www.taneyservices.com.

By the end of February, the many and varied signs of spring will be readily apparent as some trees and plants begin to blossom. I can hardly wait!

A warm December 2014!

SWMO. – It's a few days before Christmas at about 1:30 AM and the temperature outside is 45°F! A quirk of Mother Nature? Proof of global warming? I wasn't sure, but what I was pretty sure of was the fact that the warmer than normal temperatures were part of a curious pattern this December 2014.

I'd taken to calling the pattern 'the 40 Club'. Forty as in the average temperature. Take this date for instance. The high was 43.9°F while the low was 40°F giving an average for the day of 42°F. Typically, at this point in the month we would see day time high of around 46°F with lows close to 26°F. Not this year however as we are over 5 degrees above normal! All this much appreciated heat has resulted in a much small electrical heating bill and when combined with the record low prices for gasoline (currently $2 per gallon), have made a lot of people like me very happy.

A colder than normal November means high heating costs!

As the month of November 2014 closes itself out with average temperature of 6 degrees lower than what has been historically normal, the difference will really be felt in increased heating costs! This month, I will come in at about 1300 kWh versus a November 2013 total of just 890! In terms of cash, that will be about a $140 bill! An amount that will wipe out any savings I received from lower than expected gasoline prices (currently at $2.54 per gallon).

Rainfall for this month was a meager 1.73 inches versus a normal or average of 4.9 inches! So, overall the moderate drought situation for people like me, living in southwest Missouri continues unabated.

As they say, cheer up! Things might be worse. December is fast approaching and perhaps we'll make up for the lack of rain with a lot ice and snow!

Winter is neigh upon the land!

Even though the first day of official winter won't occur until December the 21^st, you'd have a hard time convincing me that it was not already in full force! Back to back snow storms currently threaten the northeast, with some locations just now digging out of record snow falls. Even here in southwest Missouri, the temperatures have been running a full six degrees below normal! Such activity begs the question – What will December be like?

Another brutal winter in 2014-15?

Last year, right about mid November, we were hit with a cold wave that saw the daytime temperature plummet to 21°F with the night dropping down to 19! Wow, now that was cold!

This year, right at about the same time, we are seeing not just a repeat, but an even more prolonged stretch of arctic air (vis a vie a Polar Vortex) that is forecast to last as long as a week. And, only time will tell just how severe it will get. One thing is for sure, the forecast high winds will make it seem even colder that what the mercury reads!

Already there is as much as 18 inches of snow in some of the northern states with a little white stuff predicted to fail in SWMO as early as the 15^th of the month! It's been a proven fact that early snow falls can augment just how brutal the coming winter might be. I think we'll get a chance to see if that has any truth to it this year, for sure.

Snow in November! What are the odds?

SWMO – Actually, the odds of seeing some snow in southwest Missouri in November are better than you might think! Areas like Joplin and Springfield can see up to .7 of an inch of the white stuff on any given year. This year, some experts are calling for cooler and wetter conditions than normal, so yes, I think the odds are somewhat fair to good.

Even soon as mid November, the National Weather Service has already begun to hint at a chance for wintry precipitation as a large arctic core of cold air settles into the Nation's middle. This shot of cold are will prevent the daytime temperatures from climbing out of the low 30's with nighttime temps falling into the 20's! Any moisture that makes it into the area could easily fall as snow or sleet. So, if you're a weather watcher, things could begin to get interesting much earlier this season...

The first freeze of the season is due on Saturday morning, Nov 1!

Last January snowstorm map

According to the National Weather Service, our first killing frost or freeze will hit southwestern Missouri long about November the 1^st! So, the month will likely enter in a chilly fashion. 

According to my personal weather records for the previous two years, 2013 got into cold temperatures early on and perhaps helped to set the stage for the brutal winter that was to come. Does anyone remember the term 'winter vortex'? That rather rare setup occurred last year and really plunged much of the nation into the meat locker over an extended period of time!

This year, the predictions for the winter of 2014-15 are all over the board. Some meteorologists see a mixed bag for much of the nation with southwest Missouri becoming colder and wetter than normal with more in the way of ice storms. I hope that one doesn't pan out.