Mid October 2013 weather report!

Click on graphic to enlarge

It's mid October down here in southwest Missouri and while some leaves are now falling, most of the area is still bathed in a green glow. I'll try and enjoy it while it lasts!

The first half of October was very pleasant with the average high temperatures at 74°F which was some 3 degrees above where they have been historically. The lows were averaging 53°F were 9 degrees above the normal! Wow! This made for some really spectacular days that afforded many residents the opportunity to get in some RR outdoors before things get a little bit more nasty later in the season.

The rainfall, so far has been lagging just a bit behind the thirty year average. I've measured a total of 1.44” on my weather web page which just a bit behind the average for the month. I confident we'll make that difference up by the end of the month.

Look for the second half of the month to be colder than normal with increased chances for rainfall interspersed between numerous cold fronts.

October's temperatures seem to be going downhill!

While I was going through some data I wanted to use in a future article, I came across some rather interesting information. It seems that, at least as far as the mean monthly temperatures go, the last three Octobers have gotten progressively colder! Now, of course, three years does not make a trend by any stretch! But, it is a little odd considering all the hype concerning Global Warming that the media seems to love so much.


Now as you may or not may know, the truest indication of a warming or cooling trend can be seen in each evenings lows. That's because Global Warming, per sae, works during the nighttime hours and not the day. This quote was taken from 'The Sun's Heartbeat: And OtherStories' by Bob Berman. “Unlike the other climate influences, greenhouse gases overwhelmingly act on the colder half of our planet, and the effects manifest as a rise in a region's minimum temperatures. Carbon sneaks in and does its work at night.” So, here is a graph of the mean low temperatures for the past three Octobers. So, is it getting COLDER at night? Interesting!

I'm looking forward to seeing what transpires in this still young month of October 2013!

And so fall begins!

[Forsyth MO] – At 6:50 AM the first splattering of rain fell outside my window. The temperature was a comfortable 68°F. The overcast sky was heavy laden with moisture, a fact that presented itself in the form of copious rain that fell throughout the morning hours. By 9: 00 AM, .6 inches of rain had fallen from a vigorous frontal system that was training over the are. Occasionally, deep-throated thunder sounded off in the distance. Meanwhile, up north of my position, heavy snow had fallen in

Boulder Canyon, ND

numerous states. As much as two feet or more in places like Boulder Canyon, North Dakota. Down to the south in the Gulf of Mexico, a tropical storm name Karen churned towards the coast spewing out copious amounts of rain on its shear-torn leeward side. Yes, fall is a time where you can witness all sorts of wild weather as cold Canadian air tries to mix it up with warm and moisture laden air from the Gulf.

Truly amazing times!

'Blizzards to the north of me

Storms to the south!

And with all that chaos in Washington

Think I'll just hide out!'

Those are my sentiments as the first weekend of October is just a day away! Mother Nature is sure making a statement with the first winter storm of the season called Atlas as she deals out heavy snow in many of our northern tier of states. Off the the south, in the gulf of Mexico, tropical storm Karen is churning away and looks to be making landfall at some point on Saturday. Thankfully, it appears as if shear forces are going to significantly downgrade the amount of mischief she can do.

Here ins southwest Missouri, all is quiet as we all await the arrival of the first real cold wave that is currently draped from New Mexico all the wave over to Michigan. Behind the front is some decently cold air that is forecast to sag it way on into the Taney County area of Missouri sometime during the early hours of Saturday – I can hardly wait.

Washington D.C. will also be entering its fifth day of being shut down (courtesy of President Obama and his stooge Harry Reid). I'm told by some in the media that its likely that the shutdown will continue well into the month and will likely become rolled into the budget ceiling debate starting on about the 15^th. Just like a powerful storm, this debate may cause our nation great amounts of destruction, so be sure to have you larder full of food, just in case....

First cold jolt of the autumn season 2013-14!

Click on to enlarge!

I will be watching with some interest as the first cold wave of the early autumn season impacts the Midwest on the first weekend of the month of October 2013. Temperatures may struggle to reach the low 60's lows during the daytime on Saturday, Oct 5 with temps only in the high 30's come Monday morning, October 7!

As you can see in the chart above, we were considerably higher than the average temperatures of the last year. This trend should hold through Friday, at which point a cold front will move on through the area and will cool things down. What is not clear, at this juncture, is the possible effect of the yet to be named tropical storm that will be called Karen if her winds increase a bit more than the 60+ knots they are now. As of this post (Oct 3), she is churning her way up toward

Snow, severe weather and a tropical storm all on 1 map!

the Gulf of Mexico where it is thought that she may well strengthen into a full fledged hurricane. And, while most computer models have 'Karen' veering off towards Florida and the east coast, there is still the possibility that she will maintain a more northerly course and thus could impact the weather over Missouri. (Right now, that's just conjecture on my part).

In any case, look for a wild ride this fall and winter as Mother Nature may throw a tantrum or two, just to keep things interesting!

September 2013 Recap!

A corneal mass ejection (CME) from the sun could be headed our way!

[Forsyth Mo.] While we all languished in the midst of a very quiet solar max cycle 24 (not counting this massive corneal mass ejection on the 29^th), September 2013 rolled on through without a hitch. Like the lack of sunspots, the month of September was most notable for the absence of any extreme weather! (Heck, most of those days could best be described as stellar)! The daytime high of 83°F, while overnight lows came in at a very comfortable 60°F. The two combined averaged at 70.3°F was only 2°F higher than the 30 year temperatures here in Forsyth Missouri averaged out at 83°F versus a

historical average of 68°F. So, all in all, it was not a bad month to get out and about. Even the rainfall was a modest 3.10" (which was .92 below the normal of 4.02) inches here in Forsyth yielded a yearly total, so far, of 34.50 inches versus a historical average of 33.98 inches! Happily, all these figures are well within what I'd call 'normal'.
 
As we now bravely enter into the month of October, I can't help but wonder if the coming months (especially December through February) will be much colder than normal? According to the Farmers Almanac it will be.

“Winter temperatures will be colder than normal, especially in the north, with the coldest periods in mid- and late December, early January, mid-January, and early March. Precipitation will be slightly below normal in the north and above in the south, while snowfall will be below normal in the central portion of the region, but above normal in the north and south. The snowiest periods will be in early November, late December, mid-January, early to mid-February, and late February.”

It's possible that the month of October may give everyone a preview for what can be expected later in the season. (Look for colder than normal temperatures for a start). In addition, the lower than normal sunspot activity and increased levels of volcanic dust in the air globally, may favor or lean towards a particularly harsh winter. (Then again, perhaps the CO2 levels that are approaching a record high of 400 ppm might bail us out yet again). Time will tell...

What's in store on the weather front?

Just in case everyone needs a heads up, it's now almost fall! The official start will be September the 22^nd. What that means is that pretty soon, the trees will turn colors and then the leaves will begin to drop, leaving stark and bare skeletons behind. To me that's a little sad. I love all the greenery that is the backdrop of all that I do for most of the year, and I hold a grudge against nature when she turns everything brown. (Did you know that the color the sun puts out the strongest is the color green! It's the last color to fade to gray when the suns sets each day)....

As you might guess, fall also means that the sun provides a little bit less warmth as the days become shorter and shorter, until around December the 22^st, when we arrive at the winter solstice and so experience the longest night and shortest day of the year. Before that point arrives, our warm and balmy days of late summer will gradually turn into the cold harshness of winter. all of which starts happening right about now...

So, what's in store for this year? Will it be a typical fall and winter or will things get perhaps a little bit dicey with a either a warmer or colder than normal regime than what we are used to. Certainly, what with global climate change, all the talk of the town, we might expect it to be warmer each winter as the levels of carbon dioxide approach and then surpass the 400 part per billion level (we are currently at 393.05 according to the Keeling Curve). Yet, scientists insist that during periods of true climate change, the one constant is that there is no constant. Rather, they tells us to expect weather that might well swing wildly from one extreme to the other with no discernible pattern, rhyme or reason. And maybe that makes some sense, after all. Our planet's day-to-day weather is the result of an extremely complex interplay of forces working on a grand scale. And much of the input of raw energy into that system comes from a star we call the sun. Her constant outpouring of life giving heat and energy is what makes life possible and is what drives unimaginably huge forces at play on earth. No one man or women knows or can predict the end result of the interplay of solar insolence, volcanism, green house gases and ocean currents on the coming season. The best they can do is to tell us all to buckle up, for it's bound to be a wild ride no matter what!