Some weather concerns for Thursday, Jan 16 2020!

Thursday will be cooler behind a cold front combined with clouds overhead. Expect highs from the upper 30's N to the mid 40's S.

The NWS was concerned about wintry precipitation chances Thursday night into Friday morning. Surface ridging shifts east while a shortwave trough and associated surface trough moves into the western Plains. This will lead to warm air advection over a shallow cold layer. The questions are: How warm is that warm nose, how cold is the near surface cold layer, and how much precipitation will actually fall?

Most models agree that the near surface cold layer will be near or below freezing over much of the area after evaporative cooling takes place. There is some disagreement in the extent and timing of the warm nose. Precipitation may start as snow and change to freezing rain later Thursday night or Friday morning, then switch to rain as surface temperatures increase later Friday morning. For now have gone middle of the road with consensus guidance for that warm nose, which gives some freezing rain and snow snow over the eastern half of the CWA (surface temperatures are currently forecast to be a bit too warm for freezing rain over the western half, but that will need to be fine tuned). While still a bit far out, it is helpful to look as some ensemble spread in amounts for a general overview.

Finally, some winter style weather!

Taney County, MO – It was looking like area residents in southwest Missouri might finally see some winter-styled action after enjoying temperatures that were pretty far above the normal, for this time of year! As it now stands, sometime on Friday, January the 10^th, a strong frontal system will move into our area in conjunction with a robust up-welling of moist air from the gulf. The heaviest rainfall should occur from Friday afternoon on through the evening hours. At this time, the front will likely shift from west to east thereby crossing the country-wide area. As it passes on through. during the late evening hours, cold air will begin to push its way on the backside. Then, perhaps as we get into the wee hours of Saturday and on into the day, some southwest Missouri residents may expect potentially all forms of wintry precipitation; from cold rain, to freezing rain, to sleet, to grapnel and then to snow. Just who gets what will depend on where you happen to be standing, but I'd wager that most of Taney County will experience the event as one of moderate rain with a transition to some light snow late Saturday evening. Those living up further north by Springfield or off to the east by West Plains will likely get their own mix.

The real concern will be in just how much water falls where! With amounts ranging from perhaps a half inch to over four inches, everyone in flood prone areas needs to hang close to their weather radios or to televised media outlets throughout the day on Saturday. [www.taneyweather.com]