Tuesday, July 9, 2019

Tropical depression likely to form in the Gulf!

NHC: There is a high probability (80%) that a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week over the northern Gulf of Mexico. This system also has the potential to produce heavy rainfall along portions of the northern and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast later this week.

My thoughts: An early and active hurricane season could perhaps spell trouble for the Tri-Lakes group of reservoirs in southwestern Missouri should such a tropical depression ever happen to impact the Gulf of Mexico region, in my opinion. Such systems can sometimes (rarely?) act as a moisture pump that can bring heavier than normal rains to the Central North American states!

Table Rock Lake was currently at 921 feet with a flood pool set at 931'. If water levels were to get that high, the Corps of Engineers would be forced to open the ten Tainter gates two and a half feet allowing 150,000 cubic feet per second of water to be released into Taneycomo which would not be able to hold back any water due to a damaged air bladder mechanism. Such an event could pose problems further downstream. [Note: Repeated attempts to contact the Corps had failed to elicit any useful information concerning repair time estimates.]

Update: July 10 - As was predicted, a tropical depression had formed and its projected path could influence the weather over southwest Mo. Although, as the second graphic below shows, heavy rainfall was not projected for SW MO.

Update: July 11 - Forecast of the effects of tropical storm Barry now appear to show it missing most of southwest and south central Missouri.

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