Forsyth MO. - This from the NWS:
[On Saturday, surface backed winds ahead
of a northeast lifting low will yield adequate directional shear
ahead of the cold front. In addition, a favorable Gulf fetch will
maintain a moisture- laden
air mass with dew points in the mid
60's.
All of these ingredients may lead to
the development of discrete super cells across southwest Missouri
Saturday evening into Sunday, with all modes of severe weather
possible.
While it is easy to get excited and
lost in the model data, it is important to note that America's RAOB
network will not begin sampling this potential storm for another
36-48 hours. Thus, be cautious not to over-hype yet.
Monday and Tuesday also look active
with severe weather possible, but the models will undoubtedly change
between now and then...]
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In general, broad scale or regional weather pattern setups do not often veer to far from the average as seen by the computer models. That said, I do plan to really focus my attention to the grids that will present themselves on Friday, May the 17th. I plan to then do a followup forecast...
Update: May 16 - 'The convection which
develops over western and central KS on Friday is expected to
shift eastward and possibly into the forecast area late Friday night
into Saturday morning. If this occurs, the severe risk for Saturday
could be conditional on just how much clearing can take place along with
the resulting instability that might develop during the day for
redevelopment of new storms. Note, however, that shear looks to be sufficient as the upper low
begins to pivot northeast over KS during the daytime Saturday. Very
moist air will be across the area and convection will likely cause
intense rainfall at the very least. This initial upper level wave
should move east of the area by Sunday morning.
Meanwhile, a secondary upper level low
will begin to push into northern CA on Sunday morning and into the
Rockies Sunday night into Monday. Strong to severe convection
will again be possible
across the central and southern plains
Monday into Tuesday, more likely Monday night into Tuesday across the
CWA. Combined, these two systems are expected to bring around 2 to
5 inches of rain
across the area through next Tuesday,
which will probably bring about some more flooding to the region.'
Also, see this article.... Apparently some others also feel this could be a big deal!
May 17 - 'Saturday (May 18) looks very active as showers
and thunderstorms develop across the region. Severe thunderstorms are
likely, while chances for excessive rainfall are increasing as well.
Precipitable water values will run around 1.5 to 2
standard deviations above normal in an area with large scale ascent
for several hours over the four state area.'
That was the latest from the NWS and the way I took it was to assumes that all forms of nastiness were still on the table.
May 18 - 'We will not be issuing a flood watch,
since trying to pinpoint any areas that will receive excessive rain
is proving to be difficult at this time. Therefore we utilized a
super blend approach in populating the rainfall forecasts. However, I
will say there are multiple models picking up on high rainfall rates, suggesting that localized amounts of
over 3 inches will be possible through tonight.
There will also be a risk for severe
weather, with all modes possible. Utilizing a RAP environment/HRRR
convective prog statistical approach in forecasting short term severe
weather, we
could receive a very busy episode of
severe storms this afternoon.
The longer the storms take to arrive, the more
unstable the atmosphere will get, which will create a more volatile environment.' [Some wording paraphrased].
10:00 AM -
Tornado Watch #182 issued for
Taney County!
Aftermath: The storm front hit hard and fast at about 4:30 PM. Some area damage resulted along with power outages at my location as well as areas along Highway Y in Forsyth MO. Sadly, my anemometer was knocked out which forced me to order a replacement. Total rain at my station was .54 inches.
www.taneyweather.com
