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| May 2017 Powersite Dam |
I paraphrased a National Weather Service forecast of potential doom that was published on April the 26, 2019 to
read as follows:
A weather pattern change continues into
early next week, setting the stage for a potentially very active
week. Medium range computer models continue to advertise increasing
low level moisture, southwest flow aloft and a meandering surface
boundary near the Taney County area. This will likely result in
periods of heavy rain along with the potential for several bouts of
severe weather. However, details are still sketchy this far out, and
certainly later forecasts need to be monitored as we head through the
weekend.
With all three Tri-Lake reservoirs currently at,
or above full pool levels, any episodes of heavy rainfall could result in
the rapid flooding of parts of Lake Taneycomo (on a temporary basis)
and all of Bull Shoals in the long term. Just how the scenario of storms will play out, the exact amounts and locations will greatly affect how severe flooding problems could become.
It was my belief that the weather should begin to get interesting on or about Wednesday, May 1st. At right is a graphic showing water levels for all three reservoirs. I was guessing that part of the problem was with a restricted rate of flow at the Bull Shoals dam on the Arkansas border. This likely due to the Mississippi River setting record levels! And, since that problem isn't going to go away very soon, I felt that the survival of my two favorite parks; Shadowrock and River Run, would be entirely dependent on how much rain actually fell in the first week of May. |
| 701.48 04-26-2019 12:45 CDT |
Update: April 27 - The baroclinic zone then meanders near
the area from Monday though Thursday as upper flow becomes more
southwesterly. As has been previously mentioned, this set up is
conducive to periodic showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain
potential along with the potential for some strong to severe storms.
The most impactful period looks to be Monday night through Tuesday
night as a shortwave lifts out of the desert southwest and traverses
the area. A corridor of precipitable water values of 1.50" to
1.75" feeding into the boundary with likely result in heavy
rainfall.
At right is an animation of flood and high flow conditions for national rivers and streams. Note the condition of the mid parts of the Mississippi river system. That heavy load of flood waters will be making its way down to rivers that help drain the Tri-Lakes as we progress into early May. In my opinion, this could spell trouble for parts of southwest Missouri.
Update: Right on schedule, a massive system arrived on the last day of April to unload 2 to 3 inches of rain all across the region with more to come as we entered bravely into May. That will pretty much seal the fate of the two parks to a watery grave for 2019. Pics to come!
Update: Right on schedule, a massive system arrived on the last day of April to unload 2 to 3 inches of rain all across the region with more to come as we entered bravely into May. That will pretty much seal the fate of the two parks to a watery grave for 2019. Pics to come!
