Winter storm system slated to just graze the Forsyth MO area!

Forsyth MO – The weather scenario, while not set in concrete, was coming more into focus...

Beginning Tuesday night (Feb 23) – an area of low pressure will traverse just to the south and east of Forsyth MO. Warm air aloft with some forcing ability will likely keep this a mostly all rain event through the evening hours with a gradual transition to snow, first occurring in the higher elevations and the spreading over south central and eastern Missouri as we go through the overnight hours. Even with the warm ground, the feeling was that there could be some bands of snow heavy enough (aided by gusty winds) to perhaps briefly cause travel conditions in the early morning hours of Wednesday. See www.taneyservices.com for more!

Midwest blizzard of 2016? Could it be close?

Southwest Missouri - I've been a weather affectionado for a number of years now. Of course, liking to watch the weather does not make me a weather expert. However, like most people, I can see which way the wind is blowing and know to come in when it's raining. 

This portion of the 2016 winter season has been most strange in numerous was. I've seen flooding on the West Coast, tornadoes in January and other strange phenomena. Closer to home, I've witnessed record December rainfall amounts and warmer than normal weather temperatures for December and January. And, now in February, smack dab in the mid portion of winter, I've observed a couple of trends that bring me believe that a really good old fashioned winter storm may be in the offing! I base this on a few observed factors:

1) Repeated arctic incursions have chilled the upper Midwest States to a good degree, and as we approach the mid portion of the month, they seem to be increasing in frequency.

2) The daily high to low temperature averages, which had been swinging much higher than normal, now appeared to be moving back to a more 'normal' average for February.

3) We are still in the midst of a rather strong El Niño pattern (which is also showing signs of weakening). This kind of setup can mean wetter than normal weather across the Midwest. So, I'm looking for the possibility of moisture to increase, for the balance of the month and on into March.

4) As we move into the latter part of February, the hemispheric boundary lines between warm, cold and frigid air will become more clearly defined. This could result in stronger frontal clashes as cold air moves southeast into warmer and moister air over the mid central states. A good potential would then exist for strong(er) storms.

What all means or will means to me is that the chance for some wild winter weather will increase to some degree. And, I remember well that many of our heavier snowfall have been in the late February to March time frame. Well, time will tell!