It’s for sure that I will never be confused with being a meteorologist and that’s OK. That fact has never diminished my enthusiasm for watching the weather and wondering what it might bring next.
This coming Tuesday (Feb 12), for instance, will be
interesting from the standpoint of potential snowfall. Conditions for that day are such that any
precipitation that falls could be of the liquid, frozen or some in-between
variety. What causes this uncertainty is depicted (abet rather poorly) in the
graphic above. In simple terms, as the low pressure system approaches the Forsyth area sometime on Tuesday morning, it will bring along with it a goodly amount of moisture. Meanwhile, high overhead, the jet stream will be moving in such a fashion as to provide lift
for that humid middle layer such that snow will likely develop high up. The tricky part will occur as those flakes fall and then approach the warmer
lower levels where winds flowing in from the east. Winds that may have a drying effect on that level.
The question that arises is what effect these drier winds will have. With just the
right setup, they may allow for the transport of flakes all the way to the
surface (a potential wet bulbing effect). On the other hand, if the temperatures stay just a
bit above freezing (33 to 35°F), then it should be a mostly all rain event. The betting is now for a wet Tuesday afternoon with a changeover to snow overnight.
In either case, Tuesday will be a day when everyone should
stay alert to rapidly changing conditions!
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